Opening of all communications in S.Caucasus may boost trade turnover - Russian expert

By Trend

As a result of a trilateral meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and the prime minister of Armenia, the parties agreed on the details of unblocking all economic and transport links in the region, Head of the New Society Institute in Russia Vasily Koltashov told Trend.

There is a certain common understanding of the need for a post-war peace and a stake on economic development, he noted.

“It is necessary for Armenia to take into account the interests of both Russia and Azerbaijan, without relying on maneuvering between the great powers, NATO, the EU, Washington and London. Armenia must understand that in this region it must work with those who are there, otherwise, it may find itself outside of the economic recovery,” Koltashov said.

Vasily Koltashov noted that this meeting confirms the fact that the period of acute actions is behind at the diplomatic level, forming relations of an economic nature in the context of the new status quo.

Also, the trilateral meeting shows that peace has been established and it is possible to begin the development of this region, which is largely a transit region and connects a number of Eurasian markets, said the expert.

“First of all, here we are talking about the Turkish market, the market of Russia and Iran. Obviously, there are some contradictions between these three states, Russia and Turkey, Turkey and Iran. This suggests that these regions will be interconnected, which will allow them to develop,” said Koltashov.

Pakistan and India, as well as the Central Asian states, can be added to these three countries, he continued.

“Their involvement in the transport infrastructure of the South Caucasus will lead to economic growth in these countries. This economic growth will be associated with Russian investments, with the interaction between Baku and Moscow, which today is much more important than the interaction between Russia and Armenia. The Western orientation of the Armenian authorities severely damaged its economy and relations with Russia,” said the head.

“Azerbaijan had won and achieved a special role in the South Caucasus. It is important for Azerbaijan to have its own material and financial resources, and the decision-making center of this country is not overseas, not in London or Brussels, but in Baku,” Koltashov stressed.

“In the zone where Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, Armenia are located, that is, in the Caspian zone, everything will be stable. Azerbaijan will largely remain a key player. This role of Azerbaijan will be a lesson for countries where power is controlled from the outside,” he said.

Speaking about the trade turnover, Koltashov noted that it is necessary to understand the model of economic development in the region.

“For Turkey, this model is not very clear. Iran is likely to increase its trade with Russia. To normalize economic relations with Turkey within the framework this unblocking of transport hubs, Russia should restart its policy towards Turkey. If the Turkish and Iranian leaders aim to expand economic cooperation under this agreement, the process of economic ties, as well as political ones, will be more stable.”

Within the above mentioned, Koltashov believes that if these conditions are met, it will be possible to see an increase in trade between these countries by the end of 2021.

“In the long term, in the next 20 years, the trade turnover will grow. We’re entering a period of economic recovery, where the era of crisis ends. However, we cannot say that all points have already been set,” he added.