TODAY.AZ / Business

Ariel Cohen: "Realization of Nabucco, above all, depends on supplier and consumer countries"

25 November 2009 [14:00] - TODAY.AZ
Day.Az interview with Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow and leading expert on Russia and Eurasian region, Institute for International Studies, Heritage Foundation.
- What do you think about the statement that U.S. Special Envoy on energy policy in Eurasia, Richard Morningstar said, that if Azerbaijan and Turkey have agreed on prices for gas, energy companies will start looking for alternative ways of energy supplies to European markets?

- The question of alternative ways of delivery of gas to European markets - an issue that the U.S. does not decide alone. This decision, suppliers and buyers of gas. So the realization of Nabucco, above all, depends on the supplier countries and consumer countries. I agree, in light of its launch, there are certain problems, but there are also problems with the price of the project, and the cost of gas, and the organization of buyers. On the other hand, sources of gas supply are not yet defined.

So, if we are talking about amounts of Nabucco, a mean of 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year. If we are talking about the project "South Stream", we mean 63 billion cubic meters a year. The question is, where there is so much for Nabucco gas? Obviously, the gas will require not only Azerbaijan but also from other countries. But no such agreement. Iran also has gas. But the United States so far opposed to the Iranian gas to go to Europe. The word "until" will be in effect until such time when Iran agreed to submit its nuclear program to IAEA inspectors.

I think that the discussion of options for delivery of gas to European markets will be meaningful only after the European countries, consumers and suppliers of natural gas agreement is reached, and as a whole, the project cost will be within reasonable limits. In the meantime, we observe the activity of Russia to involve the participating countries in the project "South Stream", and as a result - an agreement signed between them. As the saying goes, the farther the forest, the more wood. A further question arises, whose is it gas? If this is Russia's gas - is one thing. Other, if Russia would strongly suggest to Azerbaijan, and gas to pass through this tube. Will this have it, time will tell. In the meantime, we see the following - Azerbaijan is not ready to sell Russia natural gas in large volumes. In other words, he wants to sell it yourself and do not even want to resell it to Turkey.

- Observers do not exclude that the main reason for delaying the Azerbaijani-Turkish talks on gas does not come as much of Azerbaijan, as well as from Turkey, which, taking advantage of and the rights of transit in the project "South Stream, to some extent playing to Russia. And what do you think about this?

- I agree, that Turkey today is no longer holds that pro-Western stance, which it occupied during the construction of the BTC pipeline. It is not that far from Turkey, what we knew before. And the country no longer listens to the opinion of Washington's Nabucco, is it, this view simply ignores that, of course, introduces an element of irritation in US-Turkish relations.

As for flirting with Russia, and this, perhaps, I agree as well. Suffice it to important circumstance of personal relations between leaders of these countries. I will not mention the personal interests of Turkish politicians, who benefit from an in-depth cooperation with Russian business, including gas fields. So when it comes to braking of a project, you need to take into account all the above factors. In this case, project Nabucco, in my opinion, is hampered by Turkey.

- What, are the perspectives of this project then?

- I really do hope that Nabucco is realized, and the Europeans still find the political will and the means to launch this project. Incidentally, the "South Stream" is not so simple. Even with such a powerful partner as Gazprom, the authors of this project have yet to find a means to implement it. So far, neither Russia nor Italy has such money. This means that they will have to seek assistance from international financial institutions. Who would lend money, it is difficult to answer.

- Do you think that the Nabucco project has more potential than the "South Stream"?

- At one time a very successful American coach was joking when he said that "forecasts - a dangerous thing, especially when it comes to the future." So I would not want to make clear predictions, and now make some assumptions. The point is that Russia is very active "spins" project "South Stream". In terms of foreign policy activities so far it is succeeding, but I find it real money for its implementation and, more importantly, whether she will find the real buyers of gas - a question that will be difficult to answer even to herself, not to mention about you and me . And. Whose gas will pass through this tube - Turkmen, Azeri, or what else - another question for reflection.

Day.Az
URL: http://www.today.az/news/business/57752.html

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