IMF forecasts Azerbaijan’s fiscal breakeven oil price at $78.5 in 2020

By Azernews

By Ayya Lmahamad

The fiscal breakeven oil price for Azerbaijan is forecast at $78.5 per barrel in 2020 and $68.4 in 2021, local media reported on April 27, citing the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s review.

This figure was $60.9 in 2017, $56.3 in 2018 and $44.6 in 2019. 

Moreover, the external breakeven oil price for Azerbaijan in 2020 will be $80.7 per barrel and $72.7 per barrel in 2021, IMF forecasts. For the last three years (2017-2019) this figure was as follows: $59.3 per barrel, $75.9 per barrel and $83.6 per barrel accordingly. 

The IMF also forecasts that the volume of oil exports from Azerbaijan will decline to 0.67 million bpd in 2020, to 0.65 million bpd in 2021. In 2019 volume of oil export was 0.71 million bpd.

These forecasts take into account the COVID-19 pandemic and lower oil prices in the world market.

Azerbaijan’s state budget revenues for 2020 were calculated based on the oil price of $55 per barrel.

Note that fiscal breakeven oil price for oil exporting countries is the minimum price per barrel that the country needs in order to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its budget. The external breakeven oil price looks at the oil price at which a country’s current account clears.