Geopolitical risks hampering TAPI pipeline's implementation, expert says

/AzerNews/

By Aynur Jafarova

Geopolitical risks are hampering the implementation process of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations and former Director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, Doctor of Political Sciences Elkhan Nuriyev believes.

He told Trend Agency that the current situation connected with the construction of the TAPI pipeline is reminiscent of renewal of the "Great Game" around the Central Asian region, involving Pakistan, Iran, Russia and Central Asian countries.

"Currently, the prospect of increased competition is preserved, and it occurs on the background of high geopolitical risks that make the TAPI project practically impossible," he said.

The TAPI project with the proposed capacity of 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year will extend from Galkynysh field in Turkmenistan through the Afghan cities of Herat and Kandahar to its final point at a settlement on the Pakistani-Indian border.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) serves as a transactional advisor on TAPI gas pipeline project. Its main task is to develop the project company TAPI Ltd., as well as to search for a leader of the consortium to implement one of the largest energy projects in the vast Asian space.

The expert went on adding that a significant part of the gas pipeline will pass through unstable regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the border between India and Pakistan. This will create serious problems that will make it impossible to rely on the successful implementation of the project.

"In addition, the complex relations between India and Pakistan threaten the stability of gas supplies from Turkmenistan," he noted.

The expert believes the TAPI project is a costly one, and operation of the pipeline, in case of its construction, will be associated with high security costs.

"Even if the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline begins in 2015, its fate will remain uncertain, since much of it depends on the development of domestic political processes in Afghanistan in the coming years," Nuriyev said. "Thus, lack of security is a major obstacle to real progress in the implementation of this project."

The expert thinks the construction of the TAPI will enhance the integration of Afghanistan into the international economic system.

"However, it is necessary that the project would contribute to strengthening the geo-economic cooperation, rather than strengthening geopolitical rivalry to achieve this goal," he added.

TAPI is not only a regional project envisaging the transportation of Turkmen gas, but also a global one. The implementation of the project will strengthen Turkmenistan's independence, and its gas supplies to world markets will increase significantly.

The project is an opportunity to contribute to the stability of Afghanistan, and its implementation could contribute to the rehabilitation process in the post-war country. It will also create job opportunities and provide Afghanistan with guaranteed revenue from the transit.