Looking into Iran-Russia dynamics post nuclear deal

/By AzerNews - Laman Sadigova/

Despite Russia's traditional support of Iran during the negotiations on its nuclear program, an end to Iran' sanctions could actually harm the Russian economy.

Iran Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs, Ali Majid mentioned that Iranian gas is now the EU’s only viable alternative since it is looking to move away from its dependence on Russian gas in view of recent political tensions.

In this context Iran could become a dangerous competitor.

Following decades under sanctions, Iran is waiting to see its shackles removed. Iran energy market is fully ready to enter the international scene and become a major oil and gas supplier.

No doubt that Iran is a major player in the global energy market - the country ranks fourth in the world per volume of crude sales.

An end to all western sanctions could allow the Islamic Republic to increase its hydrocarbon exports. It is important to note that offers came flooding after media reported that a framework agreement had been reached. Of course, they will continue to slowdown if the Iranian crude is back to the world market.

After Russia was slammed with sanctions from both the EU and the U.S. on the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, the EU has been actively looking for an alternative to Russian gas, hoping to quench its energy-thirst elsewhere.

And Iran could indeed become a viable and powerful alternative. All this would definitely hit the Russian economy and allow the EU to bypass Russia.

Will Iran completely push Russia out of Europe? It is hardly believable taking into account the traditional strategic partnership and economic cooperation between the two.

President Vladimir Putin’s decision to lift its self-imposed ban on the delivery of S-300 anti-missile rocket system could be proof that the two powers intend indeed to work together and not against each other.

This development profoundly upset western powers.

The president’s decision can be explained in two ways: the futility of fears about future expropriation between the two and an attempt to impact on the ongoing energy negotiations.

Tehran made a substantial concession by accepting to reduce its enrichment program, but it is not a comprehensive agreement yet. Also, it is not clear whether or not the IAEA will be allowed to inspect every suspicious military installation, e.g. the one in Parchin. With this in mind, Iran's future in the EU market remains doubtful.

There are a lot of pros and cons to be carefully looked at here.

And though much rest on U.S. President Obama, it appears western powers will need Iran if they are to pick at Russia.